Just a brief list of things to keep your eye on that could affect asset prices down the road. No analysis here just a quick list of a few things watching closely: ---No peace deal as Europeans encourage Zelensky to defy Trump and refuse to secede territory. ---Supreme Court tariff decision coming. Trump says he … Continue reading Potential Macro-political Market Inflection Points to Watch Closely
The Group Psychology Trader Action Model (GPTA)
Dr. Emery This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. This paper is a preliminary release intended to advance my broader argument. Specific analysis; sources and references remain subject to revision and correction. First of all, methodologically this is a qualitative not quantitative framework of asset bubble behavior using the small n empirical approach … Continue reading The Group Psychology Trader Action Model (GPTA)
The Macro-political Captured Assets Hypothesis: How Hidden Power Defines Asset Prices
Dr. Emery This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. This paper is a preliminary release intended to advance my broader argument. Specific analysis; sources and references remain subject to revision and correction. Introduction The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), articulated by Eugene Fama, has long served as the orthodox framework for understanding financial asset … Continue reading The Macro-political Captured Assets Hypothesis: How Hidden Power Defines Asset Prices
The Macro-political Captured Assets Hypothesis, the Oil Sector, and the Limits of Market Efficiency
Dr. Emery This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. This paper is a preliminary release intended to advance my broader argument. Specific analysis; sources and references remain subject to revision and correction. See additional comments below. Abstract MCAH shows how political power, illicit capital, and asset capture distort commodity prices in the oil … Continue reading The Macro-political Captured Assets Hypothesis, the Oil Sector, and the Limits of Market Efficiency
The interesting question of a possible AI bubble
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. The case of the spectacular rise in AI stocks which have now been the market leaders and reigning stock market narrative for some time certainly requires a great deal of macro-political analysis by any investor regardless of their particular style of investing. Also educationally this run … Continue reading The interesting question of a possible AI bubble
Left Meets Right or the Strange Meeting of Mamdani and Trump in the Oval Office
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. The unexpected and in some ways odd meeting of Trump and Mamdani certainly requires further macro-political analysis in its fuller market implications. Let me especially here begin by stating once again that the methodology on this site is a Max Weberian politically neutral one. I have … Continue reading Left Meets Right or the Strange Meeting of Mamdani and Trump in the Oval Office
New York, NY, Big City of Dreams or What Mamdani’s Win Means for the Macro-political Picture
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. The Chinese have a famous curse which is "may you live in interesting times." We are certainly living in interesting times so to speak and wherever you fall on the political spectrum there is much certainly to be fearful of potentially occurring over the next few … Continue reading New York, NY, Big City of Dreams or What Mamdani’s Win Means for the Macro-political Picture
Oil Paused: Where to Now, the Macro Picture
The post discusses critical issues in the oil market affected by geopolitical dynamics and macroeconomic factors. It highlights potential impacts from U.S. military actions in Venezuela, rising energy demands due to AI, shifts in global energy narratives, trade wars, and sanctions on Russia. The future of the oil sector remains uncertain but significant.
Tariffs as Capital and the Coming Oil Sanction Push
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. I want to discuss 2 critical issues. First, Trump's new 100 per cent tariff on China for their restrictions on rare earth exports. I have said this in earlier posts that Trump views tariffs as a kind of capital that can like any good businessman would … Continue reading Tariffs as Capital and the Coming Oil Sanction Push
Three Macro-political Issues on the Horizon
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. As I indicated in my last post a while ago one of the most important macro-political questions right now continues to be will Trump force the Europeans, Chinese and Indians to go off of Russian Oil. In the case of China and India this would be … Continue reading Three Macro-political Issues on the Horizon